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Sunday, May 20, 2012
Nato orders five new drones worth $1.7bn - geo.tv
Nato orders five new drones worth $1.7bn - geo.tv
The PPP and its ‘victim cards’
http://tribune.com.pk/story/381762/the-ppp-and-its-victim-cards/
Why should the PPP not utilise a ready-made, God-given opportunity where political martyrdom is willing to save the day for them? As the history of elections in Pakistan tells us, the PPP has never campaigned for elections on the basis of its performance and good governance, nor does it plan to do that now.
If governance was the PPP’s priority, its voters would not have to witness 18 hours of loadshedding despite four-and-half years of claims promising otherwise. Furthermore, inflation would not be in double digits, the government would have shown concern over large chunks of Pakistan’s textile sector shifting to Bangladesh and, hence, causing unemployment, Karachi would not be burning, the GDP growth target (despite being very low) would not have been missed and the government would have come up with a strategy to curtail the phenomenal budget deficit and stopped printing money to meet its expenditure. Isn’t all this enough to show that governance has never been a priority for this PPP-led government?
If it was, its promises of 24 hours of electricity by December 31, 2009 would have been met. Has any government in Pakistan’s 64-year history changed four governors for the State Bank as well as four finance ministers? The Pakistan Railways situation keeps deteriorating but the railway minister sits comfortably. Certain figures are still in power despite corruption charges, our national airline currently suffers its worst annual losses and, finally, we have a prime minister who says that he was congratulated more on being convicted by the Supreme Court than on becoming prime minister.
With this state of affairs, the PPP is doing exactly what it should do to contest the next elections. In the past, the PPP was victimised by the establishment and, hence, always plays the victim card. Benazir Bhutto’s assassination created an environment in the 2008 elections that allowed the party to cash in on a sympathy vote. However, the PPP was neither able to deliver good governance or keep its promise of bringing Benazir’s assassins to justice. So, in addition to the above victim cards, the party has invented a new one by not implementing the Supreme Court’s judgments and politicising the Court. The judiciary has also helped by not taking up cases across the board and giving the PPP an opportunity to build an impression of one-sided accountability.
Coupled with this victim card is the demand for a southern Punjab province. It was never on the PPP’s agenda until March 2011 when the prime minister said: “The formation of a Seraiki province will be a part of the PPP manifesto for the next elections”. However, the PPP is bent on making a new province in this tenure to capitalise on south Punjab’s vote bank and on its grievances with the current Punjab government. Resolutions in the National and Punjab assembly have also been passed in this regard.
So, get ready for the next elections where the PPP will play its victim card and, this time, it is not against its traditional foe establishment but someone newer by the dynamic name of the judiciary. Little wonder, that the election campaign will be led by none other than Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani.
Published in The Express Tribune, May 21st, 2012.
AQ Khan denounces Thar coal project
AQ Khan denounces Thar coal project
Karachi: Controversial nuclear scientist Dr Abdul Qadeer Khan has said that the nation is being misguided about power generation through Thar Coal.
Speaking as chief guest at a dinner on Friday evening on the auspices of Rahnuma-e-Pakistan Forum at a local hotel, Khan made it clear that fake claims being made that 50,000 mage watts energy could be produced. He declared it intellectual dishonesty.
He further said that projects like Thar Coal and Reko Diq require investment of millions of dollars and state of the art equipment and technology.
He said thatChinahas the technology and skill to extract coal from Thar reserves.
The nuclear scientist said that the country is passing through a very difficult period and country needs the sincere and honest leadership.
Dr Qadeer said that the current state of the affairs is the consequence of incompetence and dishonesty of those sitting on the helms of the affairs.
He said that all the ministries and government departments are being run by those who did not have any know how of their respective department, but busy in looting and plundering the country.
Khan claimed thatPakistanhas developed world’s most modern and cheapest nuclear technology as we spent only $250 million on achieving the goal that’s why the entire world is surprised over this marvelous achievement.
He said that people were making mockery of us over my efforts to enrich uranium through a simple centrifuge machine but the world is now evident that we have achieved our task.
He said that he did not get any type of assistance from any foreigner in this task.
Thar Coal critiques not aware: Dr Samar
Thar Coal critiques not aware: Dr Samar
Islamabad: Famous Nuclear scientist, Dr Samar Mubarak Mand has profoundly said that those who criticize Thar Coal Project lack the basic knowledge about it.
Dr Samar Mubarak spoke to saach.tv here on Sunday. He said that “I know Thar Coal as I know myself. I have been working on this project for last four years hence I am aware of all pros and cones.”
Yesterday, Abdul Qadir Khan criticized the Thar Coal project, Dr Samar commented “Dr Khan is very respectful to me. His services for the Pakistan are unprecedented but I think he knows little about Thar Coal Project’s feasibility.”
“There was a time when people used to say that we (Pakistanis) can never make nuclear bomb but we made it possible. Some people have adopted the same approach on Thar Coal Project too,” Dr Samar added.
When asked about the potential of Thar Coal he said “Its potential is proven. Everything is documented now. We have already started the gasification. Now it is up to those private companies who have taken the lease of Thar Coal fields that when they will start the mega project.”
Correspondent of saach.tv asked that if the gasification has started then what the hindrance is, over which Dr Samar said “the field which is allotted to me is only the one percent of the total Thar Coal. I have proved to the word that underground gasification is possible here. So now it is up to government and those private companies that how sincere they are with the future of Pakistan.”
When asked he told saach.tv correspondent “the Thar’s coal is in powder form and if you want to burn it in heaters then it is a poor quality but if you want to use it in underground gasification, it is no less than the best.”
He repeated that “I respect Dr Khan but one should highlight the positive aspects of any project.”
Death of orthodox “Left-Right” Politics
Thanks to Adeel Ahmed
By Adeel AhmedIn the last century, it has been generally accepted that Pakistani voters are more or less divided
according to Left-Right ideological divide which also conveniently referred as Bhutto-Anti Bhutto vote.
However, in the last decade a new breed of voters is ready to replace those who were young during
1970s and 80s. Although I personally think that significantly changed economic and social conditions
have altered the priorities of the previous generation voters as well, consequently they no longer as
enthusiastically affiliated to the Left-Right politics as they once were. On the other hand, this emerging
class of is very much free from this “ideological” divide. The political discussions around us or in talk
shows generally encompass the debate of right or wrong, corruption, policies, infrastructure etc but
nobody debates on the political ideology Bhutto believed in. It simply tells that whatever Bhutto's
ideology was, it is irrelevant to the present political landscape. If we analyze other left wing political
parties like MQM or ANP, their vote bank is by large due to the ethnicity rather any left wing ideology.
PPP which is regarded as center-to-the-left mainstream political party also appeals to Sindhi ethnicity
whenever it feel threatened, in spite of being a nation-wide political party. The second mainstream
political party, PML-N, usually considered as center-to-the-right party. It is increasingly being restricted
to Punjab only. The support the perception that society is being increasingly polarized. However, the
most important thing to observe is that PPP and PML-N are shifting towards center. The difference in
their policies and its implementation is almost negligible. This further reinforces the death of orthodox
Left-Right political divide.
Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) has emerged as third mainstream political party but doesn't have Left or
Right label. Interestingly, PTI is being target of constant criticism from both conservatives and liberals.
And yet it comprises of the people from both sections. The reason is that is that PTI takes its stance on a
case by case bases rather than following any particular school of thought stringently. For example, its
policy for negotiation with Taleban is much closer to conservatives but it’s also supports trade with
India which is closer to liberals' stand. I feel that both are based on a principle, as it should be. This is
precisely becoming PTI strength as PTI is now acceptable for a broad range of school of thoughts.
Whether it be conservatives, liberals, moderates, all are attracted to its for good reasons.
PPP supporters and workers in Punjab and KPK who were unhappy with the performance of their party
but had no choice because of the deep rivalry with PML-N are now shifting loyalties to PTI. It is now an
undeniable reality that PTI is damaging PPP vote bank in Punjab and KPK, contrary to many analysts.
Unlike 1997 General Election, PPP supporters have now a genuine alternative. In 1997 elections, PMLN
sweep not because of any increase in its vote bank but benefited significantly from much lower turn
out of PPP voters. (See chart 1) This situation favorable to PTI. Moreover, being devoid of any ethnic
color and traditional left-right label, PTI will dent the vote bank of almost every political party.
Recently, I have come across a very superficial analysis which concludes that in Punjab PTI and PML-N
will share opposition votes or anti-Bhutto votes; as a result of this PPP will win the elections in Punjab.
Frankly some intellectuals yet to free themselves out from Bhutto-anti Bhutto era. The major flaws in
their analysis as it based on assumptions that (i) there are only two kinds of vote bank Bhutto or anti
Bhutto. (ii) Voter turn-out will remain 35-40%. (iii) PTI will only take its share from right wing vote
bank. It is worth noting here that in general election 1970, voter turn-out was 63% which helped PPP to overcome Muslim League factions in Punjab. In the present scenario where the anchorperson of political
talk shows earning much bigger amount than showbiz celebrities, the turn-out is expected to go beyond
60%. Moreover, the largest chunk is likely to be first time voters (18-35 years of age). It is generally
agreed upon almost everywhere that the inclusion of new voters or increase in voters turn-out usually
benefit the newer political party rather the traditional ones unless the performance of old parties were
appreciable. Further, the disadvantage with the both traditional parties is that they will also be affected
by the incumbency factor as they both are ruling parties whether in federation or province.
If we compare the results general elections of 1993 and 1997, we found out that there was no major gain
in term of votes for PML-N. Its spectacular success is due to the lack of turn-out of PPP voters. That is,
a significant chunk of PPP voters is actually a swing voters. The challenge for PTI is to get them
strongly. My and my friend’s visits to Punjab supports this claim that these swing voters of PPP are
viewing PTI as an alternative. IRI surveys show PPP vote bank being diminished, but where does it
going then? My claim: PTI.
The argument on assumption that PPP will win in Punjab due to split in opposition or right wing votes is
also found to be false if we just analyze the on ground surveys. Another very important point to be
observed in every ground survey conducted during last 12 months by IRI is clearly suggesting that PPP
popularity in Punjab has went down so much that even if the opposition votes bank split, it’s almost
impossible for PPP to win. Note that according to many Pakistani journalists IRI has been consistently
proved to be closer to the election result, particularly in 2008.
Analysis of surveys and on ground trend in Punjab, it can be said that though PTI is emerging with its
own vote bank comprises Youth, new and undecided voters, further, the increase in voter turn out will
help its cause. According to news report, NADRA revealed that 47% of the total electoral list is
composed of young adults between the age of 18 and 35 – approximately 39 million people. And around
20 per cent are even in the younger age bracket of 18 to 25 years. Orthodox left-right right politics is
now dead let this be known to our analyst.
The writer is a professional engineer based in Karachi. He can be reached at adeelahmed3@yahoo.com
or can be tweeted @AdeelKhi
The Big Bad Wolf
LOOK away now if a certain kind of green and white and crescent and star flows through your veins.
Right, for those with the stomach, let’s try and take on some myths.
For a decade, we’ve been told that the US is the Big Bad Wolf. Don’t take your eyes off her, she’ll tear you to pieces and gobble up your young.
The US wants to break Pakistan. The US wants to invade Pakistan. The US wants to steal Pakistan’s nukes. The US wants to undermine Muslim Pakistan.
And through it all, Pakistan has been the ultimate almost-victim: vulnerable and weak but in the final analysis saved from the very worst machinations of the outside world by the self-appointed custodians of the national interest.
Since 9/11, that’s essentially been the public narrative. The US has looked for ways to corner Pakistan and Pakistan has wriggled away each time before the death grip could be applied.
So thorough has been the permeation of that very deliberate message across Pakistani society that you can only whisper a contrarian thought: what exactly has the US asked of Pakistan since 9/11 that has been or is fundamentally inimical to the interests of this country?
In Afghanistan, inside Pakistan and with India or the US itself, what have the scheming and manipulative enemies of Pakistan in the US asked of this country or wanted to do to this country that truly and unquestionably was meant to hurt Pakistan?
Remove the lens of paranoia and the Big Bad Wolf that we’ve all been told we must be scared of has mostly been chasing its own tail. And when it has snarled and snapped at Pakistan, it’s never really threatened to bite.
But, we are told again and again in subtle and not-so-subtle ways, the US is really out to harm Pakistan, to destroy Pakistan even, and we have to do everything in our power to thwart a wily and powerful enemy.
Yet, what is the actual record of American bullying and intimidation over the past decade? And how far has the US pushed Pakistan on anything?
The Pakistani narrative of fear and victimhood begins with 9/11. The US invaded Afghanistan and it was terrible for Pakistan because it upended our interests in Afghanistan and turbocharged militancy in the region with devastating consequences for this country.
But history doesn’t begin with 9/11. To anyone who cared to look, the wheels had already started to come off the vehicle that was Pakistan’s foreign and national security policies in the 1990s.
The US came and knocked out the Taliban government in Afghanistan and this was bad for Pakistan — but whose Pakistan?
Yours or mine? Or the imagined Pakistan of the paranoid and insecure?
Yours or mine? Or the imagined Pakistan of the paranoid and insecure?
No, no, we are told, you can’t wrap your head around this stuff, you don’t understand how states operate and the nasty things they have to do sometimes and the even nastier things that some of them want to do.
What are these nasty things that the US has wanted Pakistan to do?
Help stabilise Afghanistan by preventing the resurgence of the Afghan Taliban. Deny space to militants seeking sanctuary in Balochistan and Fata. Roll back the infrastructure of jihad that has proliferated in Pakistan.
Which part of this is supposed to hurt Pakistan?
No, no, we are told, Pakistan exists in a tough neighbourhood and it has to do whatever’s necessary to protect itself. The Trojans had nothing on the Americans; everything they say and demand is really designed to undermine us.
But if becoming a global hub of jihad and all things regressive and parochial is what’s supposed to keep us safe, then perhaps we are better off not being safe.
The further down the rabbit hole of paranoia and insecurity you go, the more peculiar it all becomes.
What about Raymond Davis and all those contractors running around Pakistan, the self-styled defenders of Pakistan argue.
Surely, they are here to defang our nukes, blow up cities and steal babies.
Surely, they are here to defang our nukes, blow up cities and steal babies.
And didn’t the OBL raid prove that the Americans will do anything to embarrass Pakistan and nothing to treat it like an ally?
Yet, here we are, a decade down the road, several months after we closed the supposed lifeline to Afghanistan, and the US is still looking to engage Pakistan.
India, the one we feared would team up with the US in Afghanistan, has not taken over Afghanistan yet.
No one has gone after Pakistan’s nukes and few Americans even talk about them as an issue anymore.
We rail against drone strikes and their frequency drops.
North Waziristan is the hub of terrorism and militancy and nothing meaningful has been done to shut down the Haqqani network or interdict the Quetta Shura on this side of the border — and yet the ‘do more’ mantra of the Americans has subsided.
We fear the Americans will shut us out of negotiations with the Afghan Taliban and hurt our prospects in a post-war Afghanistan — but they keep looking to Pakistan to facilitate discussions.
Some in Congress mutter about cutting off aid to Pakistan but the vast majority of legislators and policymakers continue to reject the idea.
Strip away the prejudice and paranoia and the Big Bad Wolf doesn’t look so menacing after all. But there is a problem: we keep nudging the US into picking up the stick.
Take the supply route closure. When Salala was seized on as an opportunity to settle scores over May 2, we ended up playing our trump card — only to realise it wasn’t worth as much as we thought.
It’s to our enduring luck that we miscalculated. Had the supply route in fact been critical and its reopening an urgent necessity, we may not have been treated so leniently for being viewed as spoilers by the international community.
Perhaps it’s too late in the game for Pakistanis to wrap their heads around the idea that the US isn’t the Big Bad Wolf that they’ve been told it is.
But we could do ourselves a favour and begin to realise that Pakistan, as articulated by the paranoid and the insecure, is a Danger To Itself.
The writer is a member of staff.
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