Death of orthodox “Left-Right” Politics

Thanks to Adeel Ahmed

By Adeel Ahmed


In the last century, it has been generally accepted that Pakistani voters are more or less divided
according to Left-Right ideological divide which also conveniently referred as Bhutto-Anti Bhutto vote.
However, in the last decade a new breed of voters is ready to replace those who were young during
1970s and 80s. Although I personally think that significantly changed economic and social conditions
have altered the priorities of the previous generation voters as well, consequently they no longer as
enthusiastically affiliated to the Left-Right politics as they once were. On the other hand, this emerging
class of is very much free from this “ideological” divide. The political discussions around us or in talk
shows generally encompass the debate of right or wrong, corruption, policies, infrastructure etc but
nobody debates on the political ideology Bhutto believed in. It simply tells that whatever Bhutto's
ideology was, it is irrelevant to the present political landscape. If we analyze other left wing political
parties like MQM or ANP, their vote bank is by large due to the ethnicity rather any left wing ideology.
PPP which is regarded as center-to-the-left mainstream political party also appeals to Sindhi ethnicity
whenever it feel threatened, in spite of being a nation-wide political party. The second mainstream
political party, PML-N, usually considered as center-to-the-right party. It is increasingly being restricted
to Punjab only. The support the perception that society is being increasingly polarized. However, the
most important thing to observe is that PPP and PML-N are shifting towards center. The difference in
their policies and its implementation is almost negligible. This further reinforces the death of orthodox
Left-Right political divide.
Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) has emerged as third mainstream political party but doesn't have Left or
Right label. Interestingly, PTI is being target of constant criticism from both conservatives and liberals.
And yet it comprises of the people from both sections. The reason is that is that PTI takes its stance on a
case by case bases rather than following any particular school of thought stringently. For example, its
policy for negotiation with Taleban is much closer to conservatives but it’s also supports trade with
India which is closer to liberals' stand. I feel that both are based on a principle, as it should be. This is
precisely becoming PTI strength as PTI is now acceptable for a broad range of school of thoughts.
Whether it be conservatives, liberals, moderates, all are attracted to its for good reasons.
PPP supporters and workers in Punjab and KPK who were unhappy with the performance of their party
but had no choice because of the deep rivalry with PML-N are now shifting loyalties to PTI. It is now an
undeniable reality that PTI is damaging PPP vote bank in Punjab and KPK, contrary to many analysts.
Unlike 1997 General Election, PPP supporters have now a genuine alternative. In 1997 elections, PMLN
sweep not because of any increase in its vote bank but benefited significantly from much lower turn
out of PPP voters. (See chart 1) This situation favorable to PTI. Moreover, being devoid of any ethnic
color and traditional left-right label, PTI will dent the vote bank of almost every political party.
Recently, I have come across a very superficial analysis which concludes that in Punjab PTI and PML-N
will share opposition votes or anti-Bhutto votes; as a result of this PPP will win the elections in Punjab.
Frankly some intellectuals yet to free themselves out from Bhutto-anti Bhutto era. The major flaws in
their analysis as it based on assumptions that (i) there are only two kinds of vote bank Bhutto or anti
Bhutto. (ii) Voter turn-out will remain 35-40%. (iii) PTI will only take its share from right wing vote
bank. It is worth noting here that in general election 1970, voter turn-out was 63% which helped PPP to overcome Muslim League factions in Punjab. In the present scenario where the anchorperson of political
talk shows earning much bigger amount than showbiz celebrities, the turn-out is expected to go beyond
60%. Moreover, the largest chunk is likely to be first time voters (18-35 years of age). It is generally
agreed upon almost everywhere that the inclusion of new voters or increase in voters turn-out usually
benefit the newer political party rather the traditional ones unless the performance of old parties were
appreciable. Further, the disadvantage with the both traditional parties is that they will also be affected
by the incumbency factor as they both are ruling parties whether in federation or province.
If we compare the results general elections of 1993 and 1997, we found out that there was no major gain
in term of votes for PML-N. Its spectacular success is due to the lack of turn-out of PPP voters. That is,
a significant chunk of PPP voters is actually a swing voters. The challenge for PTI is to get them
strongly. My and my friend’s visits to Punjab supports this claim that these swing voters of PPP are
viewing PTI as an alternative. IRI surveys show PPP vote bank being diminished, but where does it
going then? My claim: PTI.


The argument on assumption that PPP will win in Punjab due to split in opposition or right wing votes is
also found to be false if we just analyze the on ground surveys. Another very important point to be
observed in every ground survey conducted during last 12 months by IRI is clearly suggesting that PPP
popularity in Punjab has went down so much that even if the opposition votes bank split, it’s almost
impossible for PPP to win. Note that according to many Pakistani journalists IRI has been consistently
proved to be closer to the election result, particularly in 2008.


Analysis of surveys and on ground trend in Punjab, it can be said that though PTI is emerging with its
own vote bank comprises Youth, new and undecided voters, further, the increase in voter turn out will
help its cause. According to news report, NADRA revealed that 47% of the total electoral list is
composed of young adults between the age of 18 and 35 – approximately 39 million people. And around
20 per cent are even in the younger age bracket of 18 to 25 years. Orthodox left-right right politics is
now dead let this be known to our analyst.


The writer is a professional engineer based in Karachi. He can be reached at adeelahmed3@yahoo.com
or can be tweeted @AdeelKhi