Wednesday, May 30, 2012

Political Game: Insafians, old Politicians and matter of Perception by Adeel Ahmed

Political Game: Insafians, old Politicians and matter of Perception by Adeel Ahmed



Pakistan Tehreek Insaf (PTI) has now put its foot in  middle tier, things have been changed, and perhaps PTI approach towards Pakistan Politics had to change after 30th October 2011, but the human nature to resist change and it's hesitation to accept change is deep rooted in ideological Insafians and hence, their concerns. The ideological Insafians, our assets, has every right to question the so called “deviation from ideology”; ideology of change, ideology to bring new politics for which they have struggled so hard since 1995. From where I view the new scenario of PTI politics there is no “deviation from ideology” but “shift of approach” or in fact the new approach as PTI just entered into main stream politics. For few months, I have Interacted with many Insafian, face to face and via web forum, and have observed their thoughts on the approach of PTI leadership and their political moves. This piece of writing is just to paint a picture, sketching the thoughts of Insafians and PTI leadership. This writing may not give verdict in conclusion but at least will allow Insafians and Leaders to put their foot in each other shoes.
Psychology of Insafians:                                  
In one word it is “idealistic”; willing to bring change with ideal candidates who are sincere, honest and educated. They don't find any room for conventional politicians, and to some “old” and “corrupt” are actually synonyms. Whenever, any conventional politician joins PTI, it doesn’t sound good to them. Most of them do not understand the rural constituency politics and to them every landlord is feudal. PTI leadership needs to understand here the psychology of their followers and fortunately or unfortunately, they have to deal with very diverse voters. They need to comprehend that unlike the dedicated voters of MQM in areas of Karachi or loyal voters of Bhutto's PPP in parts of Sindh, the support for PTI will be a direct function of its policies. The young and literate voter will take no time to distance himself from PTI if it feels that it's deviating from its initial promises. PTI is true national party, it doesn’t represent any province or ethnicity, it’s positive and good for Pakistan but it has its own complexity when talking about issues. Like it is quite easier for PML to support “Kala Bagh Dam” as its vote bank comprises Punjab or its quite easy decision for PPP to support “Siraiki Province” or for “MQM” to talk about local government system as it only has to deal with urban areas but when it comes to National Party like PTI with a vote bank split all over country, the decision of national interest keeping vote bank intact is quite difficult. Similarly, PTI is not a left wing or right wing party, its followers comprises diverse ideology. If PML alliance with JI or PPP alliance with ANP, their voters will not have any issue but if PTI alliance with JI, clear split will be observed in the opinions of Insafians. It is a very delicate situation for PTI due to it's varied support but at the moment, it should take pride in the fact that nation is showing trust in them.
Traditional Politicians and PTI
Joining of traditional politicians is hot debate and arguments on both sides are convincing. Infact, again it’s a matter of diverse back grounds. Insafians belong to big cities usually do not have idea of rural constituency politics. It’s quite easy to say that PTI shall have new candidates in such constituencies but unfortunately, due to the current failed system in country, it all depends on candidate. Even the seasoned political parties like PPP and PML, having traditional vote bank, cannot afford to have weak candidates. Actually, due to failure in system, its influential person in rural areas who sort out the problems and issues of people like dealing with local thana, patwari, etc. Neither people are willing to vote any weak person there nor they expect such person is able to deal with thana, patwari etc. They will only vote influential person and they are not bother to think about the economical, educational policies. I am not saying that it is a case with every person in rural area and small town but it is a fact. Also keep in mind the strong “bradari system” and the fact that normally educated people, other than politicians, does not bother to have large social circle in constituency. The constituencies are also designed such that many urban area constituencies comprise a big part of rural areas. The comparison of Bhutto era from now is not justifiable. If PTI is satisfied with 20-25 NA seats from urban areas and act as a pressure group like MQM, then it may strict to the stance that only new candidates will be given tickets but if PTI is sketching on whole canvas and looking to gain majority in National Assembly then it has to take influentials in rural areas. Insafians need to understand the engineering of electoral politics and constituency’s politics.
Pros and Cons of Traditional Politicians

Definitely, the benefit of old traditional politicians is more seats in house and opportunity to PTI to implement its agenda. PTI cannot implement agenda without having majority in assembly. The primary detriment is the appearance of PTI i.e. “Change”. People will ask that how old politicians will bring change. It will dent the perception, which matters most in politics. However, even if we ignore the issue of perception, PTI may also have to face some real problems after the inclusion of traditional politicians. If we look within PTI, there may be the conflict of old PTI leadership and the new entrants. The chemistry is not likely to match but here is the duty of top leadership to define boundaries/tasks of each office bearers and to manage conflicts. Without conflicts there is no organization but conflict management is the duty of top leadership. Further, for politician there is only one strength i.e. no. of seats. Without seat, even Mian Azhar could not cement his place in PML-Q and it is a fact that after election results the importance level of various leaders will manipulate. I have no doubt that strength of old PTI leadership depends on no. of seats they or new faces in politics able to win. If a group of old traditional politicians, recently joined or will join, in PTI will win more seats then other nominees of PTI then they definitely have a major say in future and I will not be surprise keeping their track record in front that possibility of any forward block if differences occur. However, this is electoral politics where strength of party lies in no. of seats. The traditional politicians may resist in some policies of change, approval of policies which hurt the landlords but it is test of Chairman PTI that how he will handle the people and issues. One cannot run away from these issues as these are with every big political party in Pakistan but you can manage it and this management is a real test of Imran Khan. The inclusions of traditional politicians is also a message to old PTI office bearers who despite the old association with PTI unable to present themselves as electable and could not able to enhance their social circle. Old affiliation with PTI is not criteria but the progress which matter and if they are not able to be an electable in their constituency and PTI has to rely on traditional politicians then it’s also their failure. Many current PTI office bearers are looking to leave PTI as they are not capable enough to live in competitive environment and I know what reason they will present.
Way forward for PTI
I am convinced that politics is not legality in which there is right or wrong but its perception which matters a lot. If someone is perceive to be corrupt, despite the truth is otherwise, he may not be able to get decisive votes. Voters will not bother to verify the accusations, its perception which matter on voting day. It is understood that PTI has justification to induct old traditional politicians but all is depend on how you present. What to show the most and what to hide.  I know that announcement of joining of old traditional politicians is required to attract other electables but at the same time it is creating negative perception among the emotional youth. PTI need to neutral the negative perception by bringing some youth leadership in front. Provide them opportunity to face media; similarly, some leadership from middle class educated people shall also need to be highlighted. This will definitely neutralize the negative perception to some extent. Also if possible avoid the media hype regarding joining of old politicians as the people concern will know from there circle that who has joined PTI. Workout on the methods to present PTI as agent of change and bring educated faces in talk shows. However, it is also suggested to avoid bad reputed old politicians and I remember Quaid’s saying to Liaquat Ali Khan that “DO BUT DONT OVERDO”. Further, if PTI does not strengthen its organization at lower level, it cannot win election. On Election Day, party need organization otherwise PTI candidates will not compete to more organized old parties except the old traditional candidates who joined PTI and this may not good for PTI future. It’s possible that you organize Jalsas with poor organization but when it comes to constituency voting, you cannot succeed without proper organization. In this regard, immediate election within PTI is required as this is the only way to strengthen the party at lower level. It is also a perception that PTI does not have any solution of problems. My suggestion is that PTI shall announce various committees, comprises politicians and technocrats, like Economic Reforms Committee, Education Reforms Committee, Agricultural Reforms Committee, Police Reform Committees. Members along with contact details shall be announce and people may be asks to provide suggestions. These committees will announce the policies near elections however, this will dilute the perception that PTI does not have people to resolve issues and further, it will provide people the sense of participation and affiliation with PTI.

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