Opposition(s) Way Forward By Mr. Adeel Ahmed Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani has refused to step down after his contempt of court conviction, stating that only the country’s parliament could remove him from the office. A political chess board has been drawn to analyze and predict the future moves of its major ‘apparent’ players i.e. PPP and its allies, PML-N and PTI. The term ‘apparent’ is used here as there are observers who do have a final say but they will not be visible till the last moment. As far as the PPP and its allies are concern, apparently they are most decided players of the game, having a very clear idea about the future moves. They will do their own interpretation of the judgment; propagate their own opinion about the procedure of disqualification of PM and in the mean time a section of PPP will try to malign Judges and Judiciary in order to make them controversial. It seems that Prime Minister will not go for appeal in Supreme Court and will continue to hold its office. In near past, Pakistan People's Party has emerged as a champion of 'delay tactics' and masters of lengthy legal and constitutional battles. Therefore, they are not in haste and are confident that their legal and constitutional team would tackle any move in parliament and court by opposition. The opposition parties are divided and undecided about their future course of action. PML-N is the main opposition party in the assembly but it has to understand that either you eat the cake or have it. The conduct of PML-N, in recent past over many issues, has earned them the title of “Friendly” opposition; however, giving them benefit of doubt I will dub them as “confused” opposition. PML-N started “Go Zardari Go” campaign with a harsh and aggressive bashing by CM Punjab to President Asif Ali Zardari demanding vehemently to hang him on streets but not only the campaign lost its colour even before next gathering but the statements of Mian Nawaz Sharif surprised everyone as he stopped PML-N workers from chanting anti-Zardari slogans. Similarly, PML-N agreed and supported PPP on constitutional amendments but innocently complaints that PPP is not supporting “Accountability Bill” in parliament. This makes one question the sincerity of PML-N as they could trade 'Accountability Bill' with constitutional amendments. The issue with PML-N is that they want to portray themselves as opposition but at the same time they are ruling 60% of Pakistan. The complexity with the situation in which PML-N is that despite the good intention, being a part of ‘status-quo’, there is ‘something’ to loose for them with the change in set-up. The perception is building that PML-N is not yet ready for the change in current set-up at the cost of Punjab Government. Being a ruling party and years of involvement in electoral politics has made PML-N aware of the importance of next budget; more public (read vote gaining) schemes likes Laptops, Taxis, housing schemes, and more funds for MNAs/MPAs to spend in respective constituencies. However, at the same time it understands the importance of perception in politics and they will not let go the situation unattended. The PML-N strategy will be very simple i.e. in parliament it will protest and chant slogans against PM and obstruct the parliamentary proceedings. Outside parliament, PML-N will launch isolated protests in all over the country but nothing substantial to disturb government but to restore their lost status of real opposition. In the words of H. Jackson Brown Jr. "Nothing is more expensive than a missed opportunity” and it is a fact that this is a great opportunity for Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI). PTI is not a beneficiary of current political status and therefore, PTI Chairman Imran Khan will sound much more convincing if he announces the “Tsunami March” toward Islamabad in favour of Judiciary as compared to PML-N chief who has also termed Long March as one of the options. However, Imran Khan in his press conference has shown willingness to wait for at least a month in case PM appeals in Supreme Court against the decision. This will mean that either, Imran Khan is under estimating the legal and constitutional team of PPP or perhaps he wants to buy time for preparation. PTI should have known that the appeal or reference in parliament or whatever the procedure will start against PM will go on for months and if PTI has to gain from this opportunity then it has to take initiative now. The battle is not only against PPP but the competition is also between opposition parties which are up for grabs in this political game. The immediate action PTI may take or shall take is the country wide protests by its local organizations and create a momentum. This will at least provide PTI an opportunity to propagate its stance and portray itself as an opposition; however, as far as the “Long March” toward Islamabad is concern, it will be a real test of PTI and its leadership. Though Imran Khan is known to set bigger tasks for himself but there are few things which PTI has to consider before any final decision. The very first thing that PTI and its supporters need to fathom is that the masses of Pakistan are not motivated enough to take on streets only for 'judiciary” as they were couple of years ago, therefore, PTI propaganda machine will have to project long march as a way to remove the current government involve in corruption, price hike, worst law & order, energy crisis etc. having support of judiciary as one of the agenda point but don’t expect the masses taking streets for judiciary only. Although, PTI is facing a lot of pressure from its supporters in favour of long march, but I am convinced that once the date is announced top leadership will be house arrested. Will the workers and supported of PTI be able to carry this mammoth task then. I doubt it. Unconcern the result of Long March, I can still say that it will help PTI politically but it will be the test of PTI organization and its supporters. Provided all ideal condition, even if PTI is able to gather public in Islamabad, it is a rare chance that Government will tumble unless the “observers” mentioned at the start of the article become visible and have their final say but remember that once they start playing, they rarely follow the rules of the game. | 
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